The Amazing Arlie's Assessments

[Arlie Shaban]

Oh dammit, this week has just gone completely to hell. I mean man, I get an HOH and Jun just botches everything. First off this whole alliance that Zach roped Jun, Becky and Natalie into got leaked out, with Jun only telling me when it was about to. I haven't gotten to talk to Nat about it, but I'm talking to Jun and Becky being all like "When it's a need to know basis, then I NEED TO KNOW" and that they should have told me way earlier. Then I hear this has been going around because Jen has been telling people about it.

Jun tells me she got a Final 2 offer from Shelli on DAY ONE, thought it was legitimate, and that she told Shelli about the 4, and Shelli went and told Jen right away. Like...waitwaitwait...WHAT? WHAT THE DOUBLE FUCK DID YOU DO?



Just...holy shit, Jun, I thought you were smarter than that! I kind of went off on her because I'm like, you NEVER trust a Day One F2, because chances are if they make one with you on Day One, then they've made one with just about EVERYBODY on Day One. This vote is just so damn IMPORTANT that I can't afford to have it get fucked up by something that Jen's been keeping in her back pocket and sitting on for weeks, that I could have done damage control on before all this to stop her from using it. Like, if they'd told me/released it before noms even happened, she couldn't use it, and there'd be time to diffuse the situation. Now I have to get everybody back on the same page for the vote in just a few hours. It's essentially gone from everybody being able to short term target Kelsey/Jen/Porsche/Corey/Shelli for a few rounds, to the house possibly splitting into 3 groups because of this. Kelsey's group, people left sticking with Jun, and the outsiders who'll probably be against everybody.

A 5v5v5 situation or whatever, is much better for them, especially since it might lead to Jen staying, but what's worse is that it might lead to a complete number flip with everybody teaming up and going against Jun/Becky/Nat/Zach, with me having to bail and try to get in good with Shelli and Porsche just to survive that initial onslaught. Oh, this is just a giant shitshow, and I feel like I've been having to spend time since the veto constantly trying to put out fires and make sure everyone votes how they're supposed to. Like damn, I've been especially having to put in the work this week. I just know the shit that came up can be dealt with later, and I've worked too damn hard to have everything I've gotten going and all the work I've put in amount to nothing but a worse position for myself.

[Arlie Shaban]

(I've been super busy with work and company so I'll do another one a bit later on)

I'm really glad to see that Jen's gone and knowing that I was able to pull a move like that off by sticking to my guns and not letting anybody get in my ear or sway me is awesome, and truthfully, I'm not heartbroken over sitting out on that HOH. Shelli opening Pandora's Box was such a blessing in disguise because she has to split her HOH with Natalie, and it really just reinforces that deciding not to open it was a good choice, since that could have been me having to split it with Corey, and that would've just fucked my HOH right up. The whole Shelli/Becky thing was equal parts entertaining and annoying. I mean yeah, Becky playing multiple sides sounds sort of about right, but so does the Shelli thing. Though dammit, I guess my Final 2 with Shelli must've gotten lost in the mail along the way somewhere. It is kind of annoying that a disturbingly small amount of people have been approaching me for stuff. Apparently I've been going on about it for a bit since Porsche mentioned she thinks I've got a pretty big chip on my shoulder, but it's whatever for now.

Everybody's still trying to figure out what that button does/when it comes into place/if the person who has it already knows (which I figure they do). I mean, speculation is that since HOH isn't eligible is that it's some kind of Immunity for next round or the MVP twist, or something along those lines. I'd almost prefer if it wasn't MVP since I really would rather not have to worry about that absolutely awful twist, and I've been so glad I've been able to avoid it. Either way, with Becky and Corey on the block, the round can actually work out pretty well for us in theory so that we can get rid of another of the potential people we want to go on Shelli's HOH reign, and make it so she can't play in the next one. Well, as long as we don't blow it and go for some really stupid move, that is.

[nicole]

SPOILER: Click to show

 

[Arlie Shaban]

Extended thoughts to come later, but damn this vote's actually tricky as hell, and I'm straight up not sure what to do. I've only got 4 hours to decide too since I have to send my vote in before I go to work. It's especially tricky when people are speculating we'll all have our votes revealed publicly too, so I can't even say "fuck it, let the house decide and I'll throw a vote the other way".

[Arlie Shaban]

Well shit, every other vote so far has been pretty clear and easy, but this week is just a damn mess. One of the worst things is that I feel like whichever way I decide to vote, I'm going to wind up being accused of being manipulated by someone and doing their dirty work, be it Shelli/Kelsey, or Jackie, or Zach/Jun, or whatever. The thing is that both nominees are obviously big threats as winners, both of them are people that are good in comps, and both of them are people that I think I'd be safe with if they won HOH. Shelli tells me not to trust Cody and that Jackie was asking people to put me up/saying that she didn't want to go home during my HOH, while on the other side Jackie points out Shelli's multiple F2 deals, her being in with Corey, and says Shelli herself said the same thing about my HOH that Shelli stated Jackie did. Shelli even proposed a 4 person alliance with me/her/Erika/Kelsey (which I am NOT, I repeat, NOT putting stock in) to try and help convince me to keep her.

If I had to guess how the votes are currently looking then I'd say Jun/Nat/Cody are locked for evicting Shelli, Porsche/Corey/Kelsey are locked for evicting Zach, with Ika leaning towards evicting Shelli, David leaning...who the fuck knows, and me/Howard along with Erika being unsure. There's just a ton of variables in here and I can't really fully get a handle on things in the short time I have as much as I want to. I'm sort of actually leaning towards voting Zach as bizarre as that sounds. I legitimately have kept going back and forth since last night and I'll probably go back and forth on the way to work and while I'm at work even after I've already voted.

My thought process on evicting Zach is that it would make the Shelli group seem like a bigger target, help me stay off their radar (Kelsey and I sort of keep trying to patch things up, I get along a bit with Porsche, and it'd keep Shelli off me), while lowering the non-me people Jun and Nat have as allies. The thing about this is, both sides have kept things from me, both sides have had their periods of not including me in things and not letting me know things until they had to. I don't trust people on Shelli's side overly, and I'd be a fool to fully trust Jun's side as much as I'd like to after the other thing. I know Jackie wants Shelli out, and I really have nothing against her and respect her, but like, even though it being Becky has nothing to do with it, she could have helped me with trying to get that vote going how I wanted. Since I legit don't have time, I might just say "fuck it" and vote Zach regardless of if the votes are there or not because explaining a sympathy vote to his side is probably less of a pain, than the other. Sort of like, to hell with the outcome, you guys would decide without me anyway, so go for it.

And to think. I thought I couldn't just do this earlier.

[Kat]

[Arlie Shaban]

Holy hell this week. Seriously, this fucking week. First off we find out that hey, EVERYBODY gets to make nominations while Jackie chills and enjoys some time off of the game (thanks Jackie), and Jun and Ika go up. So Ika, getting 3 votes compared to the 7 Jun got, flips out that she got put up and starts going off on everybody, especially Erika. Like damn, this was full on movie levels of vengeance swearing here. She went off on her for being sneaky, for supposedly setting Jun up, went off about Jackie, who's going to come back and wonder what the hell is going on, about the entire round where Shelli left. It was...man, it was a freaking sigh to see. THEN Jun wins Veto and pulls herself off, and right after THAT, Ika decides "Hey, guess what? Surprise Veto!" and takes herself off too. After that, we wind up with David and Natalie on the block with the HOH winner getting to decide which of them goes and Ika going into queen mode.

I'm kind of bummed that we got a crazy week just before I go away to Vegas for a few days, but maybe it'll just mean that the week after it winds up being nice and easy without me having to worry too too much. Things are almost making me think that when Veto starts we can play a nice normal, non-twist filled BB where we can make a bunch more moves without having to worry about something dumb getting in the way like MVP or whatever. But...I pretty much expect MVP to come up sooner or later as much as I dislike it because hey, I can't be having nice things now, can I?

Kelsey winning HOH is a bit of a mixed bag to me. I mean hey, it means she can't play next week's and that a bunch of heat will fall on her for her choice, but it also probably means that Natalie is going to get evicted this week, and I'm about 33% responsible for that since I voted for her as one of my nominations at the start of the week. Do I feel bad about it? Yeah, but even if Erika did set stuff up to make Jun and Natalie take the fall for stuff...both of them still went on about wanting to work with me and going deep in the game with me, only to hide like 4 of them from me. I mean, I like her as a person and enjoy talking with her, but I do NOT enjoy being left out of things, having information withheld from me, and not even being considered for alliances despite being dependable. So, with that being said...it's unfortunate, but it's something that could have been prevented.

[Arlie Shaban]

Damn am I glad to be out of the country with the HOH I miss being endurance, lol. No way I would do the ridiculous 20+ hours necessary to win. So hey, have fun killing yourselves with that comp, people. I'll be checking. And probably shaking my head a little of course.

[Arlie Shaban]

So, plan they say. And apparently it's a plan to backdoor Jun. Out of country or not, Erika and them still could have and should have messaged me about it, or at least told me about it a while before the fact. I had to ask Kelsey a couple of times before she would too. Now, I get back late tonight, but if they're not going to take my input into consideration or include me in forming the plan at least somewhat (considering I'm not back yet) even after saying they understand my take on that and want to work with me....Then how do I put this?

I might just vote to save Jun on account of not supporting a plan that I wasn't even factored into. Sorry, but I do not take being left out and in the dark kindly, and if they don't give me that respect despite knowing how much I can contribute and how dependable I am when you're legit with me, then they don't get my vote. As I've been saying, "need to know basis means I need to know" and until people get it, I'm just going to vote however the hell I want.

[Arlie Shaban]

That feeling when someone opens your Pandora's Box Number (3), and whips out a Diamond Power of Veto that should've been yours.





I'm like pissed and so irritated by that. Like, that would have been MY DIAMOND POWER OF VETO! MINE. But of course, knowing my luck, it has to go to someone, else, and somebody like Kelsey.


Seriously, what is it with my luck and me never winding up with a DPOV or CDT or whatever in any BB game I play? It's actually kind of weird. She goes on like talking about Erika being untrustworthy, and all that, and how she's been straight with me, but she did lie about what her Pandora's Box power was, and even though I don't overly blame her, it's not exactly supporting her claims. I get that now it's this big "omg what a blindside!" moment and move, but even with that, it doesn't actually undo how I feel.

Essentially it's gone from not being told about the Jun plan until the last minute, to not being told Erika was considering putting up Porsche until just before she did, Kelsey misleading me about her power (barring her being unable to say), and other things being added on top of it. Even with Jun potentially throwing me under the bus, this still makes me feel like wanting to evict Natalie not only out of principle, and to create a bit more distrust and some chaos if she goes, but to sort of render that DPOV void and ineffective a bit. Truth be told, I don't actually care that much that it's Jun going up there. I'd probably be thinking this way for a good 80% of the people left being up there too.

[Arlie Shaban]

So really, it's looking like getting the Jackie or Zach vote that'd be needed won't happen, which has made Howard and Cody puss out. I don't really care for that. I was always going to be evicting Natalie, and the question was always going to be a case of WHY I voted to evict her, and what came from it. Kelsey is saying that she's been straight with me and legit wants to work with me, but I feel like she's still hiding things somewhat. It was sort of like how supposedly Shelli way back really wanted to work with me but wasn't sure how, when...you know, ASKING TO and OFFERING would have been pretty simple. Jun keeps going on about "Kelsey's army", and while I'm certainly aware/worried about it, I'm not about to be targeted by it any time soon I don't think, as there would simply be no reason to.

I'm also seeing things sort of break off into mini groups/pairings.

- Kelsey/Corey
- Jun/Ika
- Zach/Porsche (maybe with Nat too?)
- Jackie/Erika (as Jackie apparently was the only one who knew about the Porsche thing from the start)
- Me/Howard (probably, he's closest to someone I'd say I "trust")
- Me/Howard/Cody (potentially, even though there's the alliance bit supposedly, I still feel Cody will much more do his own thing and just be in it when it's pure convenience)


So really, this would lead to spec that the "Kelsey's Army" is essentially Kelsey/Corey/Porsche+ Zach (by extension) with Erika potentially being part of it and possibly being replaced with Natalie or something. How true this is, I don't really know because these fuckers are just trying to come to me for my vote only and must be getting frustrated I'm not playing ball with them. Where Jackie sits is anybody's guess, but my guess would be that if Kelsey/Corey/Porsche win HOH after this, they put up Ika/Erika. Or, Ika/Jun if Jun somehow survives in the next half hour. Erika/Ika would probably never get along, but it's getting to the point where people are going to be needing numbers, and some of these jackasses are going to be wishing they'd kept me in the loop and hadn't taken me for granted earlier when they're needing my vote.

[Arlie Shaban]

I could laugh at the hilarity of the most open, honest, straightforward, and blunt person and this house being put up under the guise of "nobody knows where your head is at or where you stand in this game", but I'm pretty sure the ridiculousness of that reason alone just explains everything on its own.

[Arlie Shaban]

Kelsey putting me up is still bothering me and getting me pissed off so fucking much, I swear. I would have thought that finding out apparently I'm her Direct Target would make me less angry because it would mean that a bunch of things would make sense, but it didn't. I'm still pissed the fuck off at her for the way she went about it. From never telling me I was an option until 10 minutes before she posted, to knowing that I was focused on campaigning to her after that and never once telling me that she'd already posted, to straight up giving me zero chance to campaign, I just can't help but be like "what the fuck?".

What's WORSE is that she starts making up things about how I never tried to work with her (which is false), about how she let me know about the plan to backdoor Jun (she didn't, she only told me Jun was going up minutes before), and how she thought that meant I'd be okay doing her a favour and evicting Jun. Hell, she even starts going on about never being able to tell where I'm coming from and people being upset that I'm not straightforward and how nobody knew what was going to happen when I was HOH. You know, despite my nominations that week BEING THE MOST OBVIOUS NOMINATIONS IN THIS ENTIRE SEASON AND ME BEING AS OPEN AND BLUNT AS YOU CAN BE. I mean, really, I don't know what other kind of open and straightforward they'd like me to be, and nobody says a fucking thing about it. I'm just like feeling almost like I just want to fucking punch someone with how agitating it is and how I've almost hurt my damn eyes just angrily glaring at my monitor.




As of writing this, I don't have any idea who she's going to put up, since I haven't talked to her since Erika won Veto late last night. Plus, while Ika's telling me that I'll have her vote, Jackie's, and Erika's to stay if they're all voting, her telling me that I "don't have Cody's because of something rude I said to him in the past week" is both worrying and confusing since scrolling through my chat logs with Cody over the past week, I didn't say anything really rude or whatever to him. It's just what the fuck. Suddenly I supposedly do something that bothers people, but NOBODY SAYS A FUCKING THING TO ME ABOUT IT. Even though they know (because I've told most people this) that I'd appreciate and respect them more if they're open and honest about it, they avoid telling me and bitch about it behind my back.

It's just frustrating because IF YOU DON'T TELL SOMEBODY WHAT THEY'RE DOING IS BUGGING YOU, YOU HAVE ZERO RIGHT TO BITCH ABOUT THEM DOING IT AND NOT CHANGING IT. That's just how it is.

Ugh...Natalie already told me she's keeping Porsche, I'd imagine Corey and maybe Zach are too, so I need to make sure I can get 4 people keeping me to avoid a potential flipping situation in a 3-2-2 scenario with the 7 people voting (since you know, me/Porsche/replacement/Kelsey aren't voting, and if it ties between the last 2, I'd imagine Kelsey saves whoever isn't me for obvious reasons). I also REALLY need to make sure I have Howard's vote too no matter what. It's just this is going to be tricky since Kelsey could always put up Ika and have a bunch of my votes to stay get taken away that way. This whole thing just is infuriating and I'm nowhere near ready to go now when this game isn't even halfway over yet.

[Arlie Shaban]

Brief rundown on what I've actually heard so far in bullet points and why I'm worried.

- Kelsey said she wants Ika out
- Corey is saving Porsche
- Nat is pretty set on saving Porsche since Ika and I voted against her last round (even though I keep explaining my vote wasn't against her)
- Zach has said he's keeping me, and Kelsey said he told her the same (that I'm actually resorting to having to trust Kelsey on things shows my position here)
- Erika and Jackie want Porsche to go, but are wanting to save Ika which is not good at all, I've been working them both and deadline is middle of the night for Erika
- It's looking like I've probably got Cody's to stay, but I need to double check when he's on just to make sure because of some thing Ika said with "you don't have Cody's vote because he's pissed at something you said last week" before she went up.
- I want to be able to say that I think I have Howard's to stay, but apparently he's close with Ika and Kelsey seems to think he might keep her.
- Erika thinks everything hinges on Natalie (of which I can feel a sick sense of irony or poetic justice about) on if I go or Nat goes, and I think whether I go or Ika goes depends on what Howard does.

Oh, I hate being in this position, and the idea that I might get evicted before even the Top 9 without actually getting to play with people or be able to form much of anything in the way of alliances through little to no fault of my own...it actually makes me feel kinda sick. And well, a bit hurt to feel mostly stonewalled for the majority of the game so far, honestly speaking.

[Arlie Shaban]

This week is strangely enough, one of me feeling both relieved and incredibly annoyed at the same time. It's actually bugging the shit out of me. Like, as soon as Howard won HOH I was just so fucking pumped knowing that I wasn't going to go up, but there's just been a lot of things that have consistently irritated me. Regardless of me getting along with Porsche, and sort of being on decent ground with Kelsey, my position isn't going to improve if they're left unchecked. This is especially true since it seems like Corey's perfectly happy and willing to goat himself for Kelsey with how he's going. I've been trying to work something out and start putting out a bunch of fires when it comes to Erika and Jackie, but it's like nobody involved in the whole Erika/Jackie/Howard situation that's come up wants to put anything behind them.

I try to get Howard to reconsider nominating Jackie and Erika together as we could wind up needing them both down the line and say how if he was so dead set on putting up Jackie as his target, to at least put Corey up next to her so that he could potentially adjust things if stuff in the game changed, or he changed his mind or whatever. Instead he got it super set in his mind that if Jackie won HOH last week that she'd have put him up and he'd have gone or something along those lines, regardless of whether or not it might have been true. I get being frustrated since hell, I was pissed at Erika and Jackie for not saving me last round, and still kind of am, but I'm not going to completely block them off and cast them out, especially when we're about to start getting into the single digits for numbers.

What's worse is that I try to get Jackie and Erika to play nice and not provoke Howard, but Jackie wasn't exactly helping herself out with how she went about things, and Erika turns to straight up trying to call out, insult, and attack Howard by saying how he's doing Kelsey's dirty work and giving her the win, which doesn't help her, or Jackie, or Howard or ME, or really anyone other than Natalie by virtue of taking some of the attention off of her being nominated by the MVP. It's just a huge mess of everybody fighting against what's best for them and being incredibly short-sighted. The only good thing that's really come out of this is that I was talking to Zach and Nat, and got pretty much a side alliance going of me/Howard/Natalie/Zach, and even then that's something that I pretty much felt like I had to do as a sort of backup plan just to keep myself safe. I thought after all the stuff from last round and being more candid people would understand where I'm coming from and realize that it'd help to listen to me every now and then but well, I guess not.