The Amazing Arlie's Assessments

[Arlie Shaban]

(Sorry for the delay in this, like I said, I've had things keeping me busy)

Ah...it's good to be back! The Beast of the Block, the Keith Richards, and the guy with what's gotta be the RNF record for most nominations is back for another go! And so is Battle of the Block because Kat just loves doing this to us. Cliques is actually a pretty interesting change of pace to have going on, but honestly speaking, I'd rather it just be cliques on its own than with Battle of the Block. The longer BOTB goes on, the more at risk of going up I become, and I'd REALLY rather not risk having my flawless record be in jeopardy by going up. I mean, I've paid my BOTB dues thank you very much.

When it comes to alliances and stuff, well even with some people being kind of quiet and not bringing too much up to me yet, there's still been a number of things going around, so I'll break some of it down quick.

- Becky and I are still down for working directly together and she's currently my F2 again.
- Jun likely expects me to work with her, and I'm down for doing that to a certain extent.
- I really get along with Erika and want to get something going with her.
- Natalie and I talked over a bunch of stuff, and want to actually "work together properly" this time unlike in S14 when she was Naeha and we sort of "feuded by default".
- I jokingly suggested to Erika and Becky the idea of an alternates alliance with them and others tentatively called "Alt-Stars". No idea if anything comes from it though.
- In serious talk, I want to see if something can get worked together with Me/Becky/Erika/Jun/Natalie, even though I'll admit not being sure where Jun stands game-wise.


Porsche and I have been getting along, but she does seem kind of game-botty, and a lot of people, have been saying the same thing. Cody may have mentioned it first, but he's not the only one. Also, while Jen's in my clique and good at comps (so her winning POV and sticking around is good for me Immunity wise as long as I don't go up), there is kind of something about her that I can't put my finger on that rubs me the wrong way. The season 14 people have had this whole sort of "agree to look out for each other" thing going on, but I'm pretty sure when it comes to the group of S14 returnees, Steve/Shelli/Kelsey are at the top of that hierarchy and Becky and I are at the bottom, with Howard potentially being in the middle of it. Yeah, it might be good to try and keep things good with Howard if it comes to that, but I need to make sure I don't get myself grouped in with all of my season to the rest of the cast. Sure all of SLASH minus Liz might be here, but I've gotta branch out to the other season's people if I want really want to succeed this time.

[Arlie Shaban]

Oh, and Kelsey showed me some list thing of all the Direct Targets and how people had figured them out through some pattern. It doesn't matter to me though, since not only do I not really have a desire to go after mine any time soon, without also inheriting your target's points, the system sort of winds up being one that rewards the ones who don't really need it as much anyway. I wasn't going to likely get the points anyway barring some change in luck, but at least with how it is, I can make it so people aren't getting points by taking out an ally of mine.

[austin]

So insightful. Amazing.

[Arlie Shaban]

With this vote, I've sort of got a bit of a situation to look into and a decision to make. Jen is making a big push to try to get Tiffany kept so that our clique will remain intact and we'll have higher shots at Immunity. There's also factors like Direct Targets and things to take into consideration. From what I've heard on DTs, not only is Tiffany Zach's target, but Tiffany's target is Shelli, and Jackie's target is me. I may like Erika and want to be working with her, but while I know relatively how Jackie is in comps (she seemed to have the same bad luck/a little worse that I have in S14 when she was Cassandra), I don't know as much on how Erika is in comps. If she turns out to start doing well, I'd rather her not have some extra incentive to go after me.

Also, Tiffany hasn't even spoken to me since before the Veto results despite being on the block. Yeah, I feel I should have some obligation to try and save her maybe, but it's hard to think of doing it when you feel like you're being taken for granted. It's sort of like "If you can't spend 30 seconds to talk to me, why should I think you'll stick up for me down the line?". I'm also having to take into account that (while it's questionable because Kelsey's the source), apparently Jackie was trying to suggest Steve, Natalie or me to go up as a replacement. What I don't know though, is if she did that via just throwing out everybody's name that wasn't hers to try and stay off, or as a serious suggestion.

I've been talking with Jen like I'm frustrated at people not being willing to keep Tiffany, but...this is kind of to appease her and try to gauge where she's coming from. Plus, you know, have her get a target on her back. Pretty much if this vote goes how I'd like it to, then these are some of what should happen:

- Zach gets 3 points and viewed as a bigger target for going for points right away
- Zach gets Shelli as a direct target (as I believe she's Tiffany's target), putting him on her radar
- I wind up a bit more on Jackie's good side in case she wins an HOH
- I avoid majority backlash for a bit more while this BOTB twist is ongoing


Edit: Of course, as soon as I post this, Tiffany messages me.

[Arlie Shaban]

DR to come after work, but I guess that goes to show what happens when you hit literally every Dead End in the comp.

And goodbye BOTB, my old friend. May our paths never cross again.

[Kat]

Jun 22, 2017 10:34:07 GMT Arlie Shaban said:

DR to come after work, but I guess that goes to show what happens when you hit literally every Dead End in the comp.

And goodbye BOTB, my old friend. May our paths never cross again.

You never know 

[Arlie Shaban]

Damn, Becky and I be going crazy celebrating these HOH results all like:





I'm so damn hyped with how this round has turned out so far. I may have gone through every Dead End in the HOH and had the worst luck imaginable, but everything else has been awesome. Like, even with Becky putting Erika up as a pawn and targeting Jen, Battle of the Block is finally gone! I almost want to go around jumping for joy but, knowing my luck it'll be back sometime. Currently as I'm writing this, Michael and Ika are who Cody put up, which works fine for me. If things stay the same there, then Shelli will probably evict Michael since she said he's her DT.

I am a LITTLE bit irritated that Becky decided to nominate Erika when we'd talked about working with her, but considering I wanted her to put Porsche up next to Jen to try and get Porsche out before POV went to 6 people only, I don't have the most room to talk. The thing is though, if this week goes how I think it will, then Becky and I can pretty much work it so we ultimately get the say in who goes home in both evictions. Becky gets to name the replacement if Veto gets used, and I can swing at least 3 votes with getting me/Natalie/Howard voting the same way, with it being simple to get a 4th one. Yeah, I'm getting a little cocky, but this can just work out so well.

Truthfully, I'm almost hoping Jen wins the POV, even if I want it myself just to get that extra little bit of power. With who goes from Becky's clique? I'd rather it be Michael to be honest. Yeah, it's a point for Shelli, but it also stops me from becoming the DT of somebody else that I don't want, since Ika says she has me as hers and I trust her more than a lot of others here. This game finally feels like it's getting started for real, and I can't wait.

[Arlie Shaban]

(I'll do a bit more after work, and all that)

Even though I wanted Porsche up and out, Steve being up isn't really something I'm opposed to. The likely truth is that I probably would have had to rely on Corey to try and force a tie, and it would probably just be 4-2 with a pissed off Porsche staying. What's amusing to me is that Kelsey was telling me how a bunch of people were going around suggesting I go up and that Becky considered it, but other people have said they didn't hear that, and both Becky and Jun mentioned that Kelsey herself was the main one suggesting it. This apparently happened after Steve was mentioned as a potential replacement, which leads my to believe me prior thought on the whole S14 hierarchy with me being on the bottom was entirely right.

Truthfully, this actually makes me want Steve to go from my clique as a result, but I haven't seen much of Becky's on to talk to and I have to go to work soon. As for the Michael/Ika vote, I'm voting to evict Michael and keep Ika. It's looking like that vote could tie, but it just seems best for me. Michael seems less "stable", like more of a comp threat, and Ika told me I was her DT. I feel like she'd have bigger fish to fry than me if she won HOH, and I trust me being her DT more than in someone else's right now. I want to try and control who has me as a DT to limit the chances I get taken out or put up for bonus points and keep myself safe.

[Arlie Shaban]

Well, Kelsey just went full on batshit crazy. When Steve was suggested as a replacement nominee, she campaigned and pushed super hard for me to go up instead and threw me under an entire fucking FLEET of buses. Then when he DID go up because Becky wasn't just going to play ball, she started being super intimidating, and bullying and trying to strongarm people into keeping Steve. From what I heard, she even went and bullied Natalie for information on me to get the whole bit about me mentioning an alliance with her/Becky/Erika out of her, which is somehow a combination of being total WTF, and exactly what I'd expect out of Kelsey.

It's sounding like it's turned people off of saving Steve entirely and that he'll most likely be voted out 5-1. Becky's been trying to keep out of it, and just saying how if it was a tie she'd want one of her original nominees to go, which I don't blame her for doing. It's probably the best thing for her to do. Kelsey even came to me getting all pissed about something she did and promising to "clear things up in an hour" (which is probably like 20 minutes by now). I'm not going to simply take this shit lying down. I'm not going to feel bad for you getting Steve out when I didn't do anything wrong. Calm your shit Kelsey, because you're swimming with the wrong shark.

(convo below)

Kelsey Faith - Today at 1:13 AM
I would learn the definition of bullying before using the word
I know everything you've said and I'm about to clear it all up in an hour
ArlieRNF - Today at 1:14 AM
by all means
Kelsey Faith - Today at 1:14 AM
oh trust I will
ArlieRNF - Today at 1:14 AM
I'd hand you a shovel, but I don't think there's a bigger one than what you have
Kelsey Faith - Today at 1:14 AM
Very funny
ArlieRNF - Today at 1:15 AM
What's funny is you thinking people will just roll over and listen to it
don't be coming at me when I didn't even do anything
Kelsey Faith - Today at 1:16 AM
How did I come at you? And you don't even know what happened soooo
ArlieRNF - Today at 1:17 AM
don't really appreciate trying to get me on the block
Kelsey Faith - Today at 1:21 AM
I'll be home in like 40 mins but yes I did suggest your name to go up when Becky was between you steve and Porsche
I know what I did and I own up to things I do but so did others and?
ArlieRNF - Today at 1:23 AM
lol it was between 5 people

[Arlie Shaban]

Michael just made a pitch to me to keep him. He said "I have a really good relationship with Kelsey and can sort that out". Uh....I...appreciate(?) it, but no thank you.

[Arlie Shaban]

So, I proceed to be guinea pig and tell Jen my numbers when she's talking about all having my back and us working together, and first hit of the comp, Kelsey hits mine. Way to prove what I already knew right out of the bat, Jen. When it happened, I only told 3 people my numbers: Jen, Jun, and Becky. Porsche even commented that she saw I took a hit...before the board update showing which people got hits and who had boxes where.

[Arlie Shaban]

Wait, Erika...Erika? WHAT ARE YOU DOING GIVING AWAY YOUR LAST BOX?

I mean, they probably already knew anyway, but...WHAT?

[Arlie Shaban]

Damn, breaking down those comp slump walls is just SO damn good.



Seriously, even after sleeping on it and half of the day, I still can't get over having good ol' Lady Luck FINALLY turn things in my favour again. Like, as soon as Kelsey hit one of my numbers off the bat and I knew mine had been leaked, I thought for sure that there was no possible way I could come out on top of this and that my best bet was to hope that somebody outside of Kelsey, Jen, Porsche, or Shelli won it. I straight up did have to keep checking afterwards too, just to be sure it was official.

At the start, I wanted to sort of test and see where Jen stood, and I decided to be a guinea pig for the greater good of stopping people who would put me up from winning. When it came across that Jen was most likely leaking people's numbers to Kelsey/Porsche/Shelli (with Shelli and Kelsey just not telling anybody their numbers of course), I got together with Jun and just pulled together a group of people in the comp consisting of myself/Jun/Ika/Natalie/Jackie/Zach/Howard, and sort of Erika (she kind of wound up doing her own thing) and put in some damn work. I'm actually shocked that it managed to work out, because the idea of that many people working together and momentarily as a group for the greater good and trusting each other somewhat is such a rare thing in a game like this. I'm actually kind of proud of myself for having all that work pay off. I mean, Kelsey/Jen/Shelli/Porsche were sharing info without question, so it just made sense for the rest of us to do so too to try and get them out.

I considered a bit on opening one of the Pandora's Boxes, since I'm pretty sure one of them has a Diamond POV or something in it, and it'd be nice to know where that is and not have it in the hands of someone I think would target me or my allies, but I don't want to mess up what can already potentially be a good week. With nominees, I know I'm putting Kelsey up, but I've been debating on the second. I initially thought maybe Shelli or David, but I don't think Shelli's after me right now, and she hasn't overly acted against me or my allies in Jun/Becky/Natalie/Howard, or Zach/Jackie yet. It's ultimately between Kelsey/David and Kelsey/Jen. With David, it's because I'm not overly sure where he stands. He said he'd put up Corey/Kelsey or Corey/Jen, which took me by surprise. With Jen, it's entirely possible she'd Veto Kelsey if she won, and she's won like every Veto so she could stop Kelsey from winning it.

I asked Jen if she'd leaked my numbers, and she said "no", even though Kelsey hitting one of my boxes as the first post of the comp after only Jen had been told my numbers seems WAY too big of a coincidence to even possibly be anything else. The downside would be putting Jen up might make her nominate me if she wins (with her possibly being more likely to than David), but I'd have to think both she and Kelsey would have bigger targets than me right now. However, David doesn't really seem to have many enemies or people to put up, and me nominating him would give him a good reason to nominate me should he win again. I'm also having to consider who's likely to open Pandora's Box if they're HOH, and there's no doubt in my mind that both Kelsey and Jen would do it, while David might not. Either way, having this power is a rare situation for me...so I've gotta make it count.

[Arlie Shaban]

It's looking more and more like Corey's going to Veto Kelsey, which kinda pisses me off after that whole deal we had. Even beyond that though, Erika's being really fishy by trying to get me to put Natalie up as a replacement while guaranteeing that her/Jackie/Zach/David/Cody would vote to evict Jen for sure and that Natalie would be 100% safe. Simply put, I'm NOT doing that, and I'm NOT buying what she says. If Natalie went up, then there's nothing in theory to stop Erika from feeling like making a move, and piggybacking some votes onto whoever Corey/Kelsey/Porsche/Shelli vote to outnumber the rest and make me lose an ally on my own HOH reign. I'm now almost certain (since I'm not 100% certain on things in this game without actually seeing it for myself) that Erika not only originally spread the whole 4-way alliance thing with me/her/Becky/Natalie, but that she let David know that I was considering putting him up. That last bit being supported by a couple of people mentioning they'd heard he was a possibility from her.

It's kind of irritating to have Corey just go from not having much of a presence or being around to throwing a wrench in my game like that. If I have to name a replacement, it'll have to be either David or Porsche, as much as I may not want it to be Porsche from a personal level since I'm feeling like I'm getting along with her more and more (while also wondering if that's the whole trap with her game). One way or another I can NOT let myself be swayed away from the options and plans I have for what's left of this week.

[Arlie Shaban]

Mother fucker. Dammit, Corey. I know you can be like this sometimes, but not now.