|
|
Post by porsche on Aug 17, 2017 20:55:05 GMT
Well, that was a big round for me. I wanted Howard to be evicted, and he was. All that was left was dealing with the fallout. Kelsey was PISSED. She was yelling at me, saying she felt alone, being short and dismissive. I tried to be patient and apologize, and I don’t blame her at all for being upset. Me and Corey screwed her over, and I didn’t handle the last round well at all. The problem was that I didn’t know what I was going to do. I didn’t have a chance to have a real conversation with Corey until a couple hours before the deadline. Earlier in the day, it sounded like he was going to vote for Cody. And if Cody was going to go, I wanted to vote for him and play nice with Kelsey, Howard and Natalie.
I’m concerned that I was the one Howard was talking about in his final words. The last conversation I had with him was me saying I would “probably” keep him and worst of all, that I wanted to talk to him more if he survived that round. I still think he was referring to Corey though? He said he was ghosted and I don’t remember doing that. He also said this person “threw away one of the few votes they had” and Corey’s seen as the goat.
I should have handled Howard a lot better though, and that’s on me. Part of the problem I guess was that I was actually being half truthful by implying that I wanted to work with him. If I take Kelsey to the final 3, she could easily win the final HOH and then she wins the game. If Kelsey goes before 3, then I kind of feel like I’m getting cut if I don’t win, and I’m pretty terrible in challenges. If I went to the final 3 with, say, Howard and Corey though, I think that could actually work out pretty well for me. I really wish I could have gotten Natalie out last round over Howard. Howard is seen as a bigger threat than me and he’s beatable in challenges. But I had to work with what I had, and Howard going was better for me than Cody going.
Conversation with Natalie is awkward again. She was telling me how she would have targeted Howard and how she knew he needed to go, and I’m like, “if that’s true, why didn’t you tell me that?” If her and Howard really aren’t a pair, then there’s a much stronger argument for keeping Howard. She’s talked about Kelsey and Cody as the big threats, so maybe I would be safe if she won?
As for this round, I kind of sort of threw the HOH. The final 5 HOH is traditionally the one not to win. If I win this HOH, I only get one chance to save myself in the final 4. The final 4 HOH is the best one to get too since then I can compete in the final 3 HOH. It’s a big gamble though, and if I leave this round, then I look like a dumbass.
I wouldn’t have even considered throwing if I didn’t feel safe, but I kind of do? That was the point of last round, to position myself better for this round. If Cody wins HOH, he’s putting up Kelsey and Natalie. If Corey wins HOH, he says he wants Kelsey out, and I can see Cody or Natalie going up next to her. If Natalie won HOH, then I would be in trouble, but I still feel like she’ll target Cody?
And looking at the people I could be on the block next to, I feel good? Against Kelsey, I have Corey’s vote and Cody’s vote. Against Natalie, I have Cody’s vote and I think I can get Kelsey or Natalie. Kelsey and I have made up and she says she’s not mad at me anymore, though it could be either her playing nice or her realizing I’m the only one who might take her to the end. I still feel like she keeps me over Natalie though. Against Cody, I’ll have Kelsey and based off my conversation with Natalie, I feel like she’ll vote for Cody too. If I’m up against Corey though, that’s really bad. I feel like a lot of people want to go to the final 2 with Corey and I don’t think I would have any locked votes.
The easiest way to throw would be to make a mistake on purpose, but I didn’t do that. I just didn’t hurry with solving the logic puzzle.
For this round, Corey told me that if we were voting Howard out, he wanted Kelsey out next and I agreed with him. However, I kind of feel like I need to keep her in. If Kelsey is still in the game at final 4, everyone will be going after her, and if she goes, I’m in the final 3 and all I have to do is win and take someone (Corey?) to the end. If Kelsey goes out this round though, who’s the next biggest threat? I feel like that would be me, though Natalie is saying she sees Cody as a threat. But if I’m seen as a big threat and Kelsey isn’t there to shield me, I could be in trouble, and I’m pretty bad at these competitions. I feel like it’s going to be hard either way though if I can’t win my way to the end. The gamble with not taking out Kelsey this round though is that then she’s 2 rounds away from the final 2 and she can easily win her way there.
I need to make a chart of all the possibilities for the final 4 and beyond. I think I need to get out the program I used when I was HCing seasons 14 and 15 and see what it says. I’m not going to mindlessly do whatever my program says, but it is a good tool to have.
It’s exciting being so close, but I need to hold on and make it to the end with someone I can beat.
|
|
|
|
Post by porsche on Aug 18, 2017 0:52:21 GMT
HOW
I leisurely did the logic puzzle, waited for four minutes, and then submitted. How the fuck did I win?
|
|
|
|
Post by porsche on Aug 18, 2017 7:28:18 GMT
Okay, well I would have rather survived this round and gotten two shots to save myself at the final 4. But nothing is ever for certain in the Big Brother house. The veto could change things, or I could have misread the other players and not be as safe as I thought. I'm now guaranteed the final 4, and I have to use this round to set myself up the best for the final 4, and to put myself in the best position to win this game. It's a little funny that whenever I feel like I don't need to win or I'm not sure who I would nominate, that's when I win HOH. But when I'm actually going for HOH and have a clear target, I always flop. Natalie is getting nominated for sure. She nominated me, and when I said that I was putting her up, she said she expected it. Awesome. I'm not sure if she's my target though. She told me that Cody and Kelsey were the biggest threats and one of them needed to go, and that if I was on the block against one of them next round, she would keep me. She said nothing about Corey, and I found that really interesting. She would definitely evict me over him and she probably wants a final 3 with me and Corey, thinking I won't be able to win the final HOH and she can take Corey to the end. That's not a terrible offer though. In fact, a Natalie/Corey/me final 3 might be one of my better options, but only if I can make sure Corey takes me. Cody and Natalie tried to get me to put up Kelsey and Corey's going to push for her too as soon as I get a chance to talk with him. And I definitely see the logic. She's the best player in this game, and this might be the only chance to get her out. I don't think Kelsey is going is best for me though. I can really see myself becoming the next biggest perceived threat (although hopefully Natalie targets Cody) and with me only being able to play in the veto, I might be in trouble. It's a HUGE gamble though to keep Kelsey. Everybody will be targeting her in the final 4, but she has two shots to save herself. And if she does, she only needs to win the final HOH and she most likely wins the game. If that happens, then I'm going to look really dumb for not taking the shot when I had the chance. Corey is an intriguing option. I feel like a lot of people are going to try to take Corey to the final 2. If I'm up on the block next to him next round, I probably go home. Killing the goat is always an underrated strategic move. I kind of like having Corey around though? Even if I dont make it to the final 2 with Kelsey, a FTC against Natalie or Cody would be seriously hard. That leaves Cody. Kelsey was telling me how Cody was calling me a threat. I finally ask her for quotes and she sends me this Kelsey Faith - Today at 2:14 AM
I'm not unbeatable
Cody Calafiore - Today at 2:14 AM
lets bond over our challenge wins and not being wanted in the game.(edited)
Kelsey Faith - Today at 2:15 AM
lmao let's do it
#threats
they think so at least haha
But why do you think I'm the biggest threat
Other than challenge wins
Cuz you have those too
Cody Calafiore - Today at 2:16 AM
I mean I think you're more intimidating strategically
but now you be raking up the win and have that going for you too
Atleast for me I only got the challenges not so much the brains
Kelsey Faith - Today at 2:17 AM
How am I more intimidating strategically??
You've got brains
Lol
Cody Calafiore - Today at 2:18 AM
I mean I ain't gonna provide a list
but I think if you did a majority rules question
Kelsey Faith - Today at 2:18 AM
I'm not asking for one lol
Cody Calafiore - Today at 2:18 AM
and said whos more strategic
Kelsey Faith - Today at 2:18 AM
:stuck_out_tongue:
Cody Calafiore - Today at 2:18 AM
Cody or Kelsey
they gonna' answer you
Kelsey Faith - Today at 2:18 AM
but you can't vote yourself out!!
so it's me compared to others
Cody Calafiore - Today at 2:19 AM
Oh well other people are a different story aha :stuck_out_tongue:
I think you're probably more threatening than a Nat/Corey.
Porsche has played well and is a previous winner so she's threatening too
Kelsey Faith - Today at 2:20 AM
Corey has won too
But yeah
Cody Calafiore - Today at 2:20 AM
Did he O_O
Kelsey Faith - Today at 2:20 AM
Yeah as frank
Cody Calafiore - Today at 2:21 AM
oh what season was that o.o
Kelsey Faith - Today at 2:21 AM
1 I believe haha
Cody Calafiore - Today at 2:22 AM
oh wow the throwbacks
Kelsey Faith - Today at 2:22 AM
He could be the first rnf and last rnf if this one is kats finals
Final
Rnf winner*
But yeah I wonder how long ago this series started
Cody Calafiore - Today at 2:28 AM
Not if I can help it :kissing:
Imma take that crown.(edited)
Kelsey Faith - Today at 2:29 AM
Oh yeah??
Cody Calafiore - Today at 2:30 AM
You bet imma snatch it right from in front of you :smiling_imp:
and then this was when i won last round
Cody Calafiore - Last Sunday at 12:15 AM
I just think you've got Howie/Nat who've been close from the jump and Howie who has never even been eligble to be evicted. Then a previous winner and Corey who's probably just as close to Porsche as Nat/Howie.
You say I'll nominate you and maybe I would if i stayed and you put me up.
But don't think that others won't nominate you either. And I'm like, so what? This isn't that bad! I was slightly concerned about some of the stuff he said but to put him up over that felt like very weak reasoning. I talked to Cody about it though, and he told me this -_- So you think I played better than Corey and Natalie, huh? I really do appreciate the compliment, but it's going to be the final 4, and "I respect Porsche's game" could turn into "I'm afraid to face Porsche in the end." I've been more loyal to him than Corey or Natalie, but I don't want to count on him being grateful when it's going to be the final 4 and he'll see a path to the win right in front of his face. I guess this is jumping to conclusions a little, but idk. Right now I'm leaning towards Cody/Nat noms but I still need to think about it. Cody has been a good ally and I don't want to take one thing he said and make it a huge deal, but it is worrying. Me and him haven't even talked about the endgame, and we don't have a final 2. There are compelling reasons to put up every player left though. |
|
|
|
Post by porsche on Aug 18, 2017 16:18:34 GMT
Okay, let me look at this logically. There’s 4 people who can be evicted this round. At the final 4, there’s 3 people who can win HOH and 4 who can win veto.That’s 48 scenarios.
Natalie would be the most obvious target, and the only one who I feel good about nominating. She’s told me that getting her out would be a waste though. If Natalie goes, the final 4 round could play out like this:
Cody wins HOH:
~Cody wins veto: I’m not sure who he would keep safe but he would want Kelsey out and me and Corey would both do that. Then I’m at the final 3 with Cody and Corey. Me and Cody probably take Corey, and I don’t know what Corey does.
~Corey wins veto: he’ll evict Kelsey and I’m in a me/Cody/Corey F3
~I win veto: I evict Kelsey and I’m in a me/Cody/Corey F3
~Kelsey wins veto: she has to choose between me and Corey. I kind of feel like she’d cut me and try to get to the end with Corey, but I think I have a good case to get her to choose me? From her point of view, I might be more likely to take her to the end, and taking Corey to the F3 guarantees she has to win HOH
Corey wins HOH:
~Cody wins veto: He evicts Kelsey and I’m in a me/Cody/Corey F3
~Corey wins veto: He leaves Kelsey on the block, she’s evicted and I’m in a me/Cody/Corey F3
~I win veto: I evict Kelsey and I’m in a me/Cody/Corey F3
~Kelsey wins veto: I think she would evict Cody. Then I’m in a me/Corey/Kelsey F3 and me and Corey would need to beat Kelsey or she wins the game
Kelsey wins HOH:
~Cody wins veto: I’d be on the block against Corey and I feel like he would evict me
~Corey wins veto: He has to choose between me and Cody and I’m not sure what he would do. Maybe he takes Cody since that gives him a better shot to beat Kelsey in the final 3? I really don’t know a lot about Corey’s endgame plans
~I win veto: I evict Cody and then me and Corey try to beat Kelsey in the final 3
~Kelsey wins veto: I think she would want Cody out, and hopefully she keeps me safe so I can do that
Okay, so if Natalie goes, there’s a 50% chance (in terms of scenarios, probably less when you take into account Kelsey’s competition strength) that Kelsey is evicted, giving me a me/Cody/Corey F3 where I don’t feel super confident. There’s a 25% chance that Cody is evicted, giving a F3 where me and Corey want to take out Kelsey. There’s 2 of us and 1 of her, but she’s also much stronger in competitions. I also see a 25% chance that I get cut, depending on if Kelsey takes me over Corey and if Corey takes me over Cody.
Another option would be if Kelsey goes, which is what I think a lot of people want me to do. I’m definitely considering it. I’m aware of how dangerous Kelsey is and if I don’t take the shot now, I might not get another chance. The one thing that worries me is what happens after Kelsey goes?
Cody wins HOH
~Cody wins the veto: I really don’t know. I feel like he’s going to want Corey in the end, and Corey has to choose between me and Natalie, and I’m not sure what he does. I feel like he would evict Natalie? But I don’t feel confident about it
~Corey wins the veto: Same thing I said earlier, Natalie is hopefully evicted and I’m in a me/Cody/Corey F3
~I win the veto: I evict Natalie
~Natalie wins the veto: She basically told me she evicts me over Corey
Corey wins HOH
~Cody wins the veto: I really don’t know. He said he thought I played a better game than Natalie, and that doesn’t make me very confident, even if I have the better relationship with him
~Corey wins the veto: I kind of feel like I get evicted here too
~I win the veto: I would have to evict Cody. Natalie is easier to beat in a challenge, but a lot depends on how threatening Corey sees me as compared to Cody or Natalie
~Natalie wins the veto: I think she evicts Cody
Natalie wins HOH
~Cody wins the veto: I feel like he evicts me over Corey
~Corey wins the veto: I’m not sure what he does. I said in the last section I thought he evicts me over Cody but I really don’t know
~I win the veto: I evict Cody and try to take Corey to the end
~Natalie wins the veto: She’s going to try to get Cody evicted. But if she saves Corey because she wants him in the end, that could lead to me being evicted.
That’s 5/12 scenarios where I get evicted, well, probably. Depends on if Cody/Corey evict me over Natalie and if Corey evicts me over Cody. There’s a 33% chance Cody is evicted and I’m in a me/Corey/Natalie F3 and a 25% chance Natalie is evicted and I’m in a F3 with Corey and Cody. So my first reaction is that this is worse for me than Natalie going, but I could easily be wrong with how threatening I’m seen by Corey and Cody. Corey especially is a mystery. It’s also important to note that all scenarios are not equally likely, and if Kelsey’s still in the game, there’s a very big chance that she wins one of the competitions.
I’m heavily considering cutting Cody. I really don’t know. He’s been a very good ally for me and I really don’t want to just turn on him just because I’m getting paranoid over something he told me. He was a pretty loyal player in season 13, but with him being so close to the end, I can definitely see him getting cutthroat. Ugh, idk. And just because he told me he saw me as a good player, it doesn’t mean that the others don’t. Natalie keeps telling me that Cody/Kelsey are by far the biggest challenge competitors and that one of them has to go and that if both are in the final 4, one of them is going to win the game. And I definitely see that, and if I’m not getting Kelsey evicted, maybe I could do Cody? Idk idk. It just seems so random to stick my neck out to save Cody twice in three rounds, win HOH, only to target Cody. It’ll look like I’m such a mess.
Corey wins HOH
~Corey wins the veto: He’ll want Kelsey out and me and Natalie would both do that
~I win the veto: I evict Kelsey. If Kelsey’s out it’s a me/Corey/Natalie F3, which might actually be my best bet, depending on who Corey takes to the end.
~Kelsey wins the veto: I’m not totally sure but I think she would evict Natalie. I feel like she sees me as more threatening than Natalie though which is concerning. But I’m not as good in challenges and I’m more likely to take her from her point of view so I think I’d be fine?
~Natalie wins the veto: She evicts Kelsey
Kelsey wins HOH
~Corey wins the veto: I feel like he’ll evict Natalie, but I’m not confident about it
~I win the veto: I evict Natalie
~Kelsey wins the veto: I really don’t know. I think she’s more likely to save me or Corey and Natalie would be evicted.
~Natalie wins the veto: She evicts me
Natalie wins HOH
~Corey wins the veto: He evicts Kelsey
~I win the veto: I evict Kelsey
~Kelsey wins the veto: She has to choose between me and Corey and idk, I feel like she would choose Corey, although I think I could make a good case to her
~Natalie wins the veto: She’ll try to get Kelsey evicted
So that’s 50% of the scenarios where Kelsey is evicted. Natalie would be evicted 1/3 of the time and I see 2 scenarios where I’m evicted. But that feels kind of low, idk. Would Kelsey evict Natalie over me? Would Corey evict Natalie over me? I’m not really sure. If I survive, it probably leads to a me/Corey/Kelsey or me/Corey/Natalie final 3, both of which I think Corey might take me?
Finally, there’s Corey. In all of these scenarios, I haven’t found one where I would think Corey would be evicted and that’s concerning. I knew that if Natalie put him up against me at the final 7, that was the best way to get me evicted, and that still holds true now. Maybe there’s a case for Kelsey to evict Corey since she doesn’t need to worry about taking a goat imo, but I feel like Corey’s going to make the final 2 no matter what if he survives. If I kill the goat, I have a better chance at surviving the next round, but it would be a tough FTC against Kelsey, Natalie or Cody.
Cody wins HOH
~Cody wins the veto: he’ll want Kelsey out and me and Natalie would do it
~I win the veto: I evict Kelsey
~Kelsey wins the veto: She’s said that she sees Cody as a bigger threat than Natalie. If Corey is out though, who does she want to face at the end? She might have just faced me before I screwed her over last round, but maybe she thinks she has the best shot against Natalie? Idk, she is aware that Natalie has friends on the jury and that she would evict her in the final 3, so I still feel like she’ll take me? But I’m not confident
~Natalie wins the veto: She evicts Kelsey
Kelsey wins HOH
~Cody wins the veto: Well with Corey out he’ll need someone to take to the end, and I feel like that would be Natalie? I mean, if he’s said I played better than her…
~I win the veto: I was ready to fill in that I would evict Cody, since that would be my 2nd choice. But the reason it makes sense is because he’s better at competitions and it gives me a better chance to make it to the end with Corey. If Corey is gone, then I think I have a better chance beating Cody in the end, and he’s more likely to beat Kelsey. So I would evict Natalie
~Kelsey wins the veto: She would want Cody out. I’m not sure who she would keep safe though. If she keeps me safe, then I go against her wishes for the third time with her as HOH. If she keeps Natalie safe, then I think Cody is evicted
~Natalie wins the veto: She probably evicts Cody, but if I ruin her endgame plan of taking Corey to the end, who is she going to want in the end instead? She’s called Cody a big threat but she also called me a big jury threat earlier. With Cody it sounded like he was more of a challenge threat, so I actually think she could try to take her chances against Cody?
Natalie wins HOH
~Cody wins veto: He evicts Kelsey
~I win veto: I evict Kelsey
~Kelsey wins veto: She probably evicts Cody
~Natalie wins the veto: She’ll want Kelsey evicted
So if the goat is gone, then that’s 50% of the scenarios where Kelsey is evicted. If Kelsey is safe though, things are very unclear. I feel like there’s 2 scenarios where I’m evicted, 2 where Cody is and 2 where Natalie is. That’s just as good as a Cody eviction and even better than a Kelsey or Natalie eviction, but even if I make it to the end, then I have a much harder FTC if Corey isn’t there, and it might not be worth it.
This is really tough to predict. I really don’t know what Corey’s and Kelsey’s plans are, and it’s not like I can just ask them and expect to get an honest answer.
|
|
|
|
Post by porsche on Aug 18, 2017 23:34:13 GMT
My bootlist noms are Natalie and Cody. I'm just waiting for Cody to come online so I can break the news.
|
|
|
|
Post by porsche on Aug 20, 2017 14:42:29 GMT
I've thought it over and I feel like Cody going is my best move. I'm not sure if he would cut me after Kelsey, but either way, him going is best for me I think. Him and Kelsey are the best in competitions and Kelsey is a better shield. Corey and Kelsey have both promised me F2s, so I would hope that they both choose me over Natalie. Though Corey said he had an uphill battle in the final 2 and he'd rather that it be against me. But if that's what he's thinking, why not take Kelsey? idk. I'm not sure if Kelsey would choose me over Corey either, but I can show her how Corey said he wanted her out. Though Corey also has some dirt on me so idk. I'll probably have to plant the seed early.
But I see only one scenario where I'm definitely out (Kelsey HOH, Natalie veto) which is pretty good, and two scenarios where I'd need to put some work in (Natalie HOH, Kelsey veto and Kelsey HOH, Corey veto) but I should make it out of there if I play it right.
Of course, taking the biggest competition and jury threat to the final 4 is really pushing it and I'm not sure it's the right move. If Kelsey wins a comp at final 4 and the final 3 HOH, she wins the game.
|
|
|
|
Post by porsche on Aug 20, 2017 22:17:11 GMT
Probably WAY overthinking this, but I made an excel chart based on my estimation of how likely I was to win depending on who left, and I got Cody: 31.5% Corey: 29.1% Natalie: 28.4% Kelsey: 23.1% Of course this can change if I'm wrong about how likely everyone is to keep me and just how good people are in competitions, but that works as a rough estimate. I tried playing around, adjusting numbers to give Cody the benefit of the doubt and I always wound up with his elimination giving me the best odds to win. So I still think getting rid of Cody is my best move. It's a shame that it's not THAT much better than the other possibilities I have. If I had thrown HOH, still won the veto and gotten to compete in the final 4 HOH, I would probably be in a better spot. |
|
